Cannes 2015 Palme d’Or exclusive (well, according to … – Liberation

While the selection is temporary, some movie titles too. But let’s be a little brave and take risks: what are the chances of each film received the Palme d’Or?

FIRST FILM. Saul Fia (The Son of Saul) , Hungarian director Laszlo Nemes, is the only first film selection. It is so rare for this category to win the Palme it only happened once: it was Sex, Lies, and Videotape , Steven Soderbergh in 1989. It should be added that never before a Hungarian has won the Palme.

REVENANTS. On average, producers have 1.8 at Cannes. Half the time, the Palme is assigned to a director participating for the first time at the festival. This is the case of seven of the seventeen movies announced Thursday, April 16. But that means that half the time, the Palme is given to a director having come more than once in Cannes. On average, it was during his second appearance as a director receives the Palme. The benefit will be this year Maïwenn and Todd Haynes, which each have My King and Carol for their second official selection.

CHAUVINISM. The personality of the Coen brothers, presidents of the jury, will influence the ranking. Is nationality an asset to the three American films – Sicario Denis Villeneuve, Carol Todd Haynes and The Sea of ​​Trees Gus Van Sant – present in the official selection? Apparently not. Only 17 of 92 palms were awarded to a film produced in the country of origin of the jury president.

CHAUVINISM (BIS). In general, the films produced in France are the most numerous in the selection. So they are logically the most awarded. A local preference, which could benefit the seven films in the 2015 selection having been produced or co-produced in France: Mia Madre Dheepan (working title) The Tale of Tales, My King , The Law of the Market, Marguerite and Julien, The Lobster and Louder Than Bombs .

PARITY. If this is two which statistically can avoid writing an acceptance speech is Donzelli and Maïwenn. One wife, Jane Campion, won the Palme d’Or in 1993. Again, this is mainly due to male dominated selections.

By assembling all these criteria, let’s go to the obvious: no film particularly stands out. Is the Palme d’or she will be given to a film that is not yet announced the selection? Hay statistics, it is art. Let the jury surprise.